THE DUTCH ARE PREPARING FOR A TURBULENT AUTUMN

After the Dutch Queen Beatrix announced the new policy of the Dutch government for the upcoming year, The Netherlands is preparing for a turbulent autumn. Over the last days many strikes were organised and this Saturday the 2 of October a huge national demonstration against the policy of the Dutch government will be held in Amsterdam . While Prime-Minister Balkenende is sick and the Dutch have the Presidency of the EU there is more and more dissatisfaction in The Netherlands.

De polarisation is increasing, the unions are knocking on the gates of the government complex in The Hague , while the government thinks they can solve all problems by explaining why the gigantic cuts of 19 billion euros is necessary. It seems that the strikers and opposition only see a future after a Dutch regime change. The question is: will the conflict escalate or will the tension be eliminated by wheeling and dealing in the tradition of the famous Dutch Polder model.

Analysts say that the critics and strikes might bring the government closer together and it is the question if the situation is politically severe enough to cause the fall of the government. The coalition still has a majority in the Lower House and since all three coalition parties do very bad in the polls, a government collapse would be fatal for them. Most importantly it seems that all coalition parties support and believe in the necessity of the new harsh measures.

After the announced cuts-record the of 19 billion euros the coalition tries to win back some sympathy by dumping 1 billion of the intended cuts. The latter is actually quite unique, because such a proposed change of plans normally comes from the opposition. The biggest part of the 1 billion that is taken out of the proposed cuts is used to relieve exactly those measures that dissatisfies the unions and the opposition, namely the abolition of the ‘early retirement scheme' and the change of the Social security system. Besides this the government tries to find a way out of the rise of turbulence by saying that they have to take more effort to communicate the difficult message to the people.

A professor in ‘social security sciences' states that the Dutch government does not really comply with the international treaties when they prepare new laws and measures. Amongst others pregnant women, immigrant workers of the first generation and disabled will be harmed. The professor admits that some of the treaties are a bit out of date but he says that this does not mean they should be neglected. The other European states have doubts about the new Dutch measures since they have consequences that are in general internationally unacceptable.

In critical article an analyst states that she was wrong with her critics on the Dutch cuts in the 80ties of the previous century, but ‘now there is no economical justification for the Spartan measures of the Cabinet of Jan Peter Balkenende. There is no inflation, there is under consumption. Why should the Dutch work more hours when they have the highest labour productivity in the world?' The analyst expects that the Dutch government will regret that they pushed the unions aside, breaking with the famous Dutch ‘Polder model'.

A research assigned by one of the unions says that half of the Dutch companies is opposing the new plans of the government. It means that the planned strikes and demonstrations even have the support of most of the employers. How turbulent will the Dutch autumn be? more features

September 30, 2004